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학술지 Demand Forecasting for New Media Services with Consideration of Competitive Relationships using the Competitive Bass Model and the Theory of the Niche
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저자
설현주, 박광만, 이학연, 윤병운
발행일
201209
출처
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v.79 no.7, pp.1217-1228
ISSN
0040-1625
출판사
North-Holland
DOI
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.03.002
협약과제
10MR4600, 지상파 양안식 3DTV 방송시스템 기술개발 및 표준화, 김진웅
초록
New broadcasting services such as Internet protocol TV (IPTV) have been totally revolutionizing the broadcasting industry; thus, the prediction of the degree of diffusion of new media services is a major topic of interest for both governments and providers. This paper proposes a new approach towards demand forecasting for new services with no data and with consideration of competitive relationships with existing services. The underlying model of the proposed approach is the competitive Bass model, which is the most widely used competitive diffusion model. The competition coefficients of the model are estimated by introducing the theory of the niche. The theory of the niche, which originates from ecology, has often been used as a framework for examining competition patterns in the media industry. This study develops a new integrated measure, competitive superiority, by modifying and combining the two conventional measures of the theory of the niche, viz., niche overlap and niche superiority. The competition coefficients are then obtained by adjusting the values of competitive superiority to be incorporated in the model based on the relationship between competition and imitation effects. A case of Korean digital broadcasting services is presented to illustrate the proposed approach. © 2012 Elsevier Inc.
키워드
Bass model, Broadcasting services, Competitive diffusion model, Demand forecasting, Theory of the niche
KSP 제안 키워드
Bass model, Competitive diffusion, Competitive relationships, Demand Forecasting, Diffusion Model, Digital Broadcasting, Internet protocol(IP), Media industry, New approach, broadcasting services, model-based