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학술지 A Hybrid Bass-Markov Model for the Diffusion of a Dual-Type Device-Based Telecommunication Service: The Case of WiBro Service in Korea
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저자
송영근, 이성주, 조항정, 이학연
발행일
201501
출처
Computers & Industrial Engineering, v.79, pp.85-94
ISSN
0360-8352
출판사
Elsevier
DOI
https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2014.10.020
협약과제
15MI2100, (통합)초연결 스마트 모바일 서비스를 위한 5G 이동통신 핵심기술개발, 정현규
초록
Because the increasing complexity of technology embedded in telecommunication services enables services to be provided via various mediums, the vital requisite for forecasting the diffusion of such services is to simultaneously capture different diffusion phenomena for different devices. This paper proposes a new diffusion model for a dual-type device-based service called the hybrid Bass-Markov model. The proposed model is targeted at the service environment where one type of device is new to the market, and the other type has existing competing services. The Bass model is selected to model service diffusion through the former type of device, while the Markov transition model is employed to capture the diffusion through the latter type of device. The hybrid Bass-Markov model is then developed to produce the aggregate demand. The case of the wireless broadband (WiBro) service in Korea is presented to illustrate the proposed model with a policy sensitivity analysis. This research is expected to be the basis of multi-type device-based service forecasting and, ultimately, will help researchers conduct demand forecasting of services offered by several different devices.
키워드
Bass model, Diffusion of innovation, Dual-type device, Growth model, Markov model
KSP 제안 키워드
Aggregate demand, Bass model, Demand Forecasting, Diffusion Model, Diffusion of Innovations(DOI), Growth models, Markov model, Proposed model, Sensitivity analysis, Service diffusion, Service environment