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시장 출시 전 신상품 수요 예측에 관한 연구 : 위성 DMB 사례를 중심으로
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- 저자
- 박윤서, 변상규
- 발행일
- 200611
- 출처
- 경영과학, v.23 no.3, pp.41-61
- ISSN
- 1225-1100
- 출판사
- 한국경영과학회 (KORMS)
- 협약과제
- 06MR1100, 지능형 통합정보 방송(SmaR TV) 기술개발, 안치득
- 초록
- This study is to propose a sales forecasting framework for new products in the prelaunch phase where no sales data are available. For the purpose we first develop an extended Bass model with the dynamic market potential and then propose an estimation method based on the market survey and scenario methodology. The proposed parameter estimation method is different from previous studies in that most of them have only proposed the management judgments or analogies. We also apply the proposed model to satellite DMB market in Korea to verify the model.
- KSP 제안 키워드
- Bass model, Dynamic market, Market survey, Parameter estimation method, Proposed model, Sales data, Sales forecasting, forecasting framework, market potential