최근 재난이 대형화 및 복합화되고 있어 도시화 증가 및 기반시설 밀집화로 인해 경제적 피해가 심화되었다. 이러한 대형복합재난은1차 단일 재난으로 인해 2차, 3차 재난이 동시다발적·연쇄적으로 발생하고 있으나 우리나라의 기존 재난관리 체계는 자연·사회재난간 이분법적 구분으로 적응력이 떨어진다. 복합재난의 원인은 산업구조의 변화에 기인한 거주환경의 급속한 도시화 진전으로 생활환경속에서 위협요인이 다양하고, 예측불허의 양상을 보이고 있다. 지구온난화에 따른 기후변화로 인하여 자연재난 발생양상은 대형화·복합화되고 있으며, 과거와 달리 자연재난도 도시기능 마비와 같은 복합재난으로 발전할 가능성이 크다. 따라서, 본 논문은 기존단일 요인에 의한 재난관리의 한계성을 극복하고 재난을 효과적이고 합리적으로 관리하기 위해 포괄적인 개념에서 자연재난과 사회재난을 통합한 복합재난 시스템 모델링을 제시한다. 이를 통해 선제적 재난관리체계 기반 구축을 통해 국민의 생명과 재산을 보호하는데 큰 역할을 수행할 수 있을 것으로 예상된다.
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