본 논문은 복수개의 자연 및 사회재난이 상호 연계되어 발생하는 복합재난 확산예측 시스템 구현에 관한 것이다. 복합재난 확산예측 시스템은 시나리오 자동생성, 통합모델링 및 가시화 기능으로 구성된다. 시나리오 자동생성은 STEEP, 델파이기법, 과거 재난발생 사례 분석기법을 활용하여 국내 상황에 부합하는 재난연계성 매트릭스와지역특성 지수를 산정하고 시나리오를 자동 생성하는 모듈을 구현하였다. 통합모델링은 개별재난 확산예측 결과를활용하여 복합재난 확산예측 범위를 산정하고 Natech에서 정의한 인명, 경제, 사회 및 환경적 피해로 세분화하여피해를 산정하였다. 본 논문에서 복합재난 피해 규모를 산정하기 위해 잔존자원가치 기반 피해규모 산정 방법을제안하였다. 본 논문에서 통합모델링 결과는 OpenGIS 엔진을 활용하여 2D 형태로 가시화하며, 국토교통부의V-World를 활용하여 3D 가시화하였다.
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