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Conference Paper
Analysis of Hourly Solar Irradiance Prediction based on Meteorological Radiation Model using Open Weather Data and Measured Solar Radiation
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- Authors
- Jinsoo Han, Wan-Ki Park
- Issue Date
- 2020-09
- Citation
- European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition (EU PVSEC) 2020, pp.1468-1470
- Language
- English
- Type
- Conference Paper
- Abstract
- Renewable power generation based on solar energy is increasing. However, since solar energy is greatly dependent on weather conditions and causes uncertainty of power generation, there are difficulties and limitations in efficient and effective energy management of it. This paper proposes a solar irradiance prediction model based on meteorological radiation models (MRMs) to estimate accurate hourly solar irradiance. The proposed model uses general input parameters easily obtained from weather data and excludes rare parameters used by complex MRMs. In a direct normal irradiance, aerosol and water-vapor transmittances greatly affect prediction accuracy. In a diffuse horizontal irradiance, aerosol transmittance dominantly affects prediction accuracy. We evaluate the performance of the proposed model based on hourly weather data and measured irradiances during one year. The cross-correlation coefficient is 0.963 on clear and cloudy skies; and it is 0.998 on only clear sky. The proposed model outperforms previous simple methods and shows similar performance compared to a complex MRM. It is expected to enhance prediction accuracy of solar power generation based on hourly forecast weather data.
- KSP Keywords
- Affect prediction, Clear sky, Cross correlation coefficient, Direct Normal Irradiance, Effective energy, Input parameters, Irradiance prediction, Prediction accuracy, Proposed model, Radiation models, Renewable Power Generation