BROWSE
Detail
Journal Article
이동통신 세대 전환의 구조적 지연 특성을 이용한 SD 모델링
Cited - time in 
Share 
Share
- Authors
- 장재혁, 정창권
- Issue Date
- 2025-12
- Citation
- 한국시스템다이내믹스연구, v.26, no.4, pp.253-276
- ISSN
- 1229-8085
- Publisher
- 한국시스템다이내믹스학회
- Language
- Korean
- Type
- Journal Article
- Abstract
- This study develops a System Dynamics (SD) model to analyze the structural delay mechanisms in mobile generational transitions by integrating device-bound contract constraints into the Norton-Bass multi-generation diffusion framework. The model explicitly defines a ‘Transition Decision Pending Group’ to structurally represent the competition, coexistence, and substitution between 4G and 5G. Simulation results demonstrate high validity, with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 4.2% for 4G and 4.0% for 5G, accurately reproducing the crossover point of the generational shift. Notably, the dual-peak patterns observed in key flow variables reveal that marketing effects are realized with time lags due to structural lock-in. As the 6G era introduces non-human entities like AI agents and robots as new network users, this SD-based framework offers essential insights for forecasting complex structural transitions in the future telecommunications ecosystem.
- Keyword
- 시스템다이내믹스, 이동통신 세대 전환, 구조적 지연, Norton-Bass 모형
- KSP Keywords
- Lock-in, Multi-generation, Peak patterns, System dynamics(SD), Time-lag, crossover point, mean absolute percentage error(MAPE), simulation results, structural transition