침체와 저성장이라는 경제 양상이 뉴노멀이 될 것인가, 아니면 새로운 모멘텀이 등장하여 세계 경제를 성장시킬 것인가? 본 보고서에서는 후자의 관점에서 AI 기술과 경제성장의 관계를 조망해보기로 한다. 세계 경제를 이끌었던 생산요소는 시대에 따라 변해왔다. 농업 시대에는 토지가, 산업시대에는 자본과 노동이 생산성 향상의 핵심 수단이었다. 제4차 산업혁명으로 대표되는 미래사회에는 AI가 생산성 향상의 가장 중요한 역할을 할 것으로 보인다. 흔히 AI가 전기에 비유되는 것은 AI를 ‘전구'가 아니라 '새로운 전력'으로 바라봐야 한다는 의미를 내포하고 있다. 새로운 전력은 ‘인식지능(Perception Intelligence)'을 넘어 '자율지능(Autonomous Intelligence)', '증강지능(Augmented Intelligence)', '혁신지능(Amplified Innovation)'이라는 세 가지 힘에서 나온다. 이들 힘은 기존 범용기술과 달리 자본, 노동, 총요소생산성 등의 생산요소를 질적으로 변화시킨다. AI의 외적 가능성에 대한 불확실성이 높아진 지금, 생산성 향상에 직접적으로 영향을 미치는 기술 경로가 인공지능에 의해 새롭게 만들어지고 있음을 주목해야 할 것이다.
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